Philadelphia Flyers 2023-24 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings ·

23 Jun 2024, 00:00

It wouldn’t be right to call what we’ve seen in Philadelphia over the last six months a full-on overhaul. Two former stars — Keith Jones and Daniel Brière — are still leading the organization, with others dotting the masthead. Their P.R. position is, basically, “We’re still the Flyers.” They’re still wearing orange.

There’s been real change in the most important spots, though. Jones, Brière and Co. didn’t just say three straight years of accidental putridity and a spreading sense of apathy in the fanbase was unacceptable; they acknowledged that the fix wouldn’t be quick or painless. And then, they acted accordingly.

Ivan Provorov, Kevin Hayes and Tony DeAngelo were all sent out in future-focused transactions. Picks and cap space were added to the coffers. The roster, wisely and deliberately, got worse. This season’s question is whether that mindset will continue and whether it should.

The projection

In a year when too many teams were actively trying to be as bad as possible, a putrid 75-point season wasn’t enough for Philadelphia to land in the bottom five. The Flyers basically got a top-five talent in the draft in Matvei Michkov anyway.

Expect a similar season from the Flyers, this time with a ‘better’ finish without the temptation of Connor Bedard at season’s end for other teams. The Flyers should land right around 75 points again and earn a bottom-five finish 63 percent of the time. The rebuild is fully on and that means picking high to build around Michkov.

It’s the same story as the other bottom-feeders with the major difference being a bit more certainty in how bad the Flyers will be. The teams below them have some young players with higher upside who can break out in a big way. The Flyers have some players in that vein, but it’s much closer to a “what you see is what you get” kind of roster. Especially with the same coach coming back.

That’s a good thing for the Flyers and their new era of orange. There’s no misguided vision going into the season: Philadelphia is rebuilding and its roster matches that expectation.

Percentiles with the bar graphs are based on each player’s Offensive, Defensive and Net Rating relative to their time-on-ice slot, i.e. the first forward is compared to other first forwards only.

The strengths

That vision is an unquestionable strength for the Flyers. Sure, moving out NHL-caliber players will weaken the team in the interim. However recognizing that a rebuild is necessary and actually moving forward with it was overdue in Philadelphia, so the fact that this new management group was willing to commit to the process is a strong start. And the early returns have been positive so far, including efforts to clear the locker room of as many bad vibes as possible.

A rebuilding team, especially in the early goings that the Flyers are in, tends to have few strengths. That’s true in Philadelphia, but there are still a few others to highlight.

The return of Sean Couturier may be, considering his ceiling as a Selke-caliber center. But the uncertainty around his level post-injury means this can’t be solidified as a positive just yet.

GO DEEPER

Flyers' big question: How good can Sean Couturier be after missing almost two years?

While there are questions about where Couturier’s game will be this season, there should be confidence in Travis Konency after his resurgent season. That’s boosted him up to a plus-seven net rating.

Konency’s value primarily stems from his offense. He reached a career-high in scoring, with 31 goals and 61 points last year in just 60 games. That rebound in scoring, after failing to clear the 20-goal mark the last two years, was thanks to a change in his approach. He found the right balance between quality and quantity shooting, after favoring one or the other the last few years. The winger didn’t only contribute shots, but was the Flyers’ best in transition, and helped set up his teammates’ chances. Even the defensive aspects of his games started to trend up.

There isn’t exactly a ton of competition for the best offensive presence on the Flyers but there are some supporting players who play key roles.

After acclimating to being deployed as a center, Noah Cates excelled defensively in his rookie season against top opponents. Owen Tippett showed some offensive upside that’s useful in a secondary role. He joined Konency as one of the few Flyers to actually thread the needle below the surface with his shot contributions. Morgan Frost showed some progress after a slow start to his NHL career and Cam Atkinson’s return should boost the middle six.

Between Cates and Couturier, depending on how he returns from injury, the forward group has some defensive strengths. Free agent signing Garnet Hathaway adds to that (although his offensive rating seriously lacks). That helps lift the team to an even zero defensive rating.

Under this coaching staff, it’s no surprise defense has been emphasized. And it’s something that actually improved as last year progressed. While the Flyers conceded a ton of shots against, the team did get better at protecting the middle and net-front areas in the later stages of the season.

Maybe the most surprising part of that defensive improvement was Rasmus Ristolainen’s role. He opened the season matching the reputation he’s earned for his poor play. But he actually ended up with one of the best influences on the team’s defense playing alongside Travis Sanheim, despite his challenging role. The Flyers allowed 0.34 fewer expected goals against per 60 with Ristolainen on the ice, relative to his teammates. Defensively, the team’s top four actually grade out pretty well.

That team-wide defensive improvement will give Carter Hart support in net. In 55 games last season, he saved almost 13 goals above expected which was good for 16th in the league. That level may not be sustainable without any support, so the better the team defends, the better he should perform.

The weaknesses

As much as the Flyers may want to lean on Hart, he’s going to need support. The problem is, he doesn’t have much depth behind him.

The Cal Petersen trade was a salary dump the Flyers could take on because they know they aren’t going to be competitive over the next two years. In just 10 NHL games last year, Petersen responded horribly to his workload, conceding 10.1 goals above expected. That’s why he was exiled to the AHL. Maybe he’s a reclamation project. But as it stands, he doesn’t impress in the slightest so it’s going to be a problem if the Flyers have to lean on him for any extended period of time.

Even more pressing is the fact that the goaltending won’t have support in front of them either, offensively.

Aside from Konency thriving last year, the team-wide offense was still underwhelming. At five-on-five, the Flyers ranked 24th in the league in their shot and scoring chance generation. They slid a bit lower in actual goal scoring, as they failed to convert on all of their quality looks. Philadelphia was one of the worst teams at carrying the puck into the offensive zone, which obviously hurt its chances of standing out in transition. But its cycle game wasn’t strong enough, either.

While a healthy Couturier and Atkinson could help, as could progression from the likes of Joel Farabee and Frost, there’s a clear ceiling on that aspect of the game with this roster. The fact that Scott Laughton is slotted as high as he is underscores that. He’s coming off a year of career bests. But as reliable as he may be for the Flyers as a utility forward, ideally, he doesn’t belong as high in the lineup as the team needs.

It’s not just that the team doesn’t have many skaters with a high offensive rating — their highest is Konency at plus-nine and only five others players even crack into the positives — but the lows could sink them.

The lows push this team down to a collective offensive rating of minus-41, which is the second-worst in the league. That makes a depth forward like Nicolas Deslauriers, who is an absolute black hole for offense, all the more unnecessary.

How much of a positive impact can Sean Couturier have coming off his injury? (Len Redkoles / NHLI via Getty Images)

There’s obviously room for that to improve if certain players can add an offensive edge to their game — Cates could, and Wade Allison stands out as another option after a rocky rookie year. But there’s also a lot of room for this group to decline even more, depending on player movement.

It’s not clear how management will proceed with players like Konency and Laughton. The latter is a locker room staple and an effective utility player, but the reality is he’ll be past his prime by the time the Flyers are a playoff team again. Konency, as the team’s most valuable forward, could be their best trade chip to really push the process along. Without them, an already dismal offense is only going to get dragged even further down with depth players in unfitting, meaningful roles.

The offense is the most glaring flaw for the Flyers. The defense, on the other hand, seems to have a ceiling based on the personnel.

Losing Provorov, regardless of his actual impact, means taking someone out of the mix who was accustomed to absorbing tough minutes. So someone else will have to step up and the options aren’t inspiring.

Cam York primarily played sheltered minutes last year and doesn’t look ready for more just yet even though his five-on-five influence was a plus relative to his teammates. Moving him into a greater role could burn the Flyers, so it may be best to keep him shielded from that for now.

Free agent signing Marc Staal is another option. He’s familiar with John Tortorella’s style and was tasked with these minutes with the coach back in New York years ago — and that ‘years ago’ qualifier is pretty important for someone whose defensive game has seriously slipped since. There’s a reason why he wasn’t put in that position in Florida.

Maybe Nick Seeler is an option, considering how he helped limit scoring chances in his minutes. But it’s a gamble because there’s no guarantee his game will hold up in greater usage.

The other option is throwing more at Ristolainen and Sanheim, but the two already take on top competition. Burying them even more could sink the results that the Flyers should want to build on. As it is, even with some of their strengths, the team has to take the good (the defense) with the bad (being a total drag on offense).

Offensive weakness is a theme of this blue line that extends past just Ristolainen. Only one defender — York — is a plus. The defense collectively adds up to a stark minus-14 offensive rating that is the second-worst in the league. Even with the most stalwart defense, this would be difficult to mask. Or maybe it wouldn’t be as necessary if the forward group rated better, but they’re dead last in the league offensively.

Strong seasons across the board would obviously help the Flyers move past their putrid rating, but realistically this is going to hold the team back this year.

The wildcard

Can Cam York be a true top-pairing defenseman?

The Flyers are in the thick of a rebuild where the primary goal is clear: Find the pillars for your future foundation. That means be as bad as possible to get a high pick and hope that some kids on the roster can progress toward that goal.

That brings us to York, Philadelphia’s most intriguing defenseman. The 14th pick in 2019 is projected to be Philadelphia’s top defender which shouldn’t come as a big surprise considering he had the best five-on-five numbers on the team last season. The Flyers’ expected goal difference was 0.47 better with York on the ice with an even impact at both ends of the ice. The 22-year-old looks like the future of their blue line.

This is the year to prove just how bright that future is though; whether he can be a legitimate top pair option.

There’s a difference between providing top-pair results and being a top-pair player and it comes down to usage. York was one of Philadelphia’s most sheltered players last season and spent a lot of time next to Provorov. In a bigger role without a veteran safety blanket, it’s no guarantee his rosy results can continue.

What gives further pause is his tracked data which is a lot uglier than expected. York is good at defending his blue line, but his ability to do anything with the puck is shockingly below average. Maybe he can grow into that, but that won’t be easy in a bigger role.

York is entering a time in his career when a big step is expected. What he does next will play a big role in deciding how difficult the road ahead will be for Philadelphia.

The best case

Konecny starts the season on another point-per-game run, and Brière maximizes the return, moving him near the deadline for a first-round pick or two and a prospect. Couturier stays healthy, but not healthy enough to ruin the Flyers’ lottery hopes. They win the No. 1 pick, and Michkov cooks the KHL all the while.

The worst case

Couturier can’t stay in the lineup, making everyone sadder and his contract even worse. Konecny’s performance drops off. Brière decides to bring him back for his walk year. A run of hot goaltending hurts the Flyers’ lottery hopes, and bad luck does the rest. They wind up picking No. 7 as Michkov sees limited KHL playing time.

The bottom line

For the last two seasons, the Flyers were among the league’s very worst teams, a hopeless franchise without direction. At least now they’re finally willing to admit that the on-ice product isn’t built to win.

The winning will come, sometime in the distant future. For now, a new era of orange starts with a whole lot of pain and not much excitement. A combination of no star-power, an anemic offense, an okay defense and a whole bunch of losses will likely create one difficult-to-watch concoction.

It’ll be good for the future, but for now, watching orange paint dry might be more compelling.